1
Start With What You Know
Three numbers you already have, plus next year's goal.
Measure in
Prior Year
Customers Who Purchased
Active buyers last full year
Prior Year
DTC Cases Sold
Per customer: 2.0 cases
Prior Year
Current Customer-List Size
Subscribers, including non-purchasers
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2
Refine the Assumptions
Industry-typical defaults shown. Edit any to match your data.
Derived
Avg Annual Cases per Customer
Based on prior year. Edit if next year will differ.
Default
Retention Rate
Prior year customers buying again next yearHow to CalculateOf the customers who purchased two years ago, what percentage also purchased last year? Divide returning customers by the prior-year customer base.
Default
Recovery Rate
% of your non-purchasing list won to a purchase next yearHow to CalculateYour non-purchasing list is your customer list minus the customers who bought. Estimate the share of that group you will convert to a purchase next year. Recovered customers equal (list size minus prior customers) times this rate.
Default
Signup to Customer Conversion
% of customer list signups who become customersHow to CalculateOf new customer list signups, what percentage make their first purchase within a year? Divide new customers by new signups over the same period.
Optional
Current Waitlist Count
Customers who have signed up and are awaiting their first offer.
The Answer
To sell 6,000 cases, you need 3,000 total customers. Retention and recovery will get you to 1,975 purchasers, the remaining 1,025 will be new customers, and with a 30% conversion rate that works out to
3,417
New Customer-List Signups
How You Build To 3,000
Top of Funnel · Your Reachable Pool
Retention
You Have
2,500
prior purchasers
70%
Recovery
You Have
7,500
lapsed and non-purchasers
3%
Acquisition
You Need
3,417
new signups
30%
Bottom of Funnel · Next Year's Purchasers
3,000 customers purchase next year · 1,750 + 225 + 1,025
At a Glance
Next Year Case Goal
6,000
Case Growth
+20%
Customer Growth
+20%
Customer-List Growth
+35%
Building assessment...
Going Deeper
Turn this estimate into a plan.
This calculator gives you directional guidance. Working with Andrea turns it into a brand-specific roadmap built on three things:
01
The five-year vision
Establish a long-term plan for sustainable growth.
02
The customer journey
Develop strategies for acquisition, conversion, retention and recovery.
03
The channel economics
Calculate CAC and LTV to ensure profitable growth.
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